Record Online Sales of $83 Billion Expected this Holiday Season; Online Prices Expected to be Lowest on Thanksgiving Day
Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) today released its 2015
Digital Index Online Shopping Prediction for the upcoming holiday
season. Adobe forecasts that total online sales will reach $83 billion,
an increase of eleven percent year-over-year (YoY). Seventy-six percent
of sales will be devoted to just one percent of product SKUs – primarily
electronics (60 percent) and gift cards (ten percent). Thanksgiving Day
will be the fastest growing online sales day for the second consecutive
year, with an 18 percent increase YoY and $1.6 billion in sales. Cyber
Monday will hit the $3 billion mark for the first time and see twelve
percent growth YoY, while Black Friday is expected to increase 15
percent YoY to generate $2.7 billion. The most talked about gift items
likely to fill shopping carts include the Star Wars BB-8 droid toy, the
Apple Watch, Sony’s PlayStation 4, Minecraft and Halo 5 video games,
among others.
Adobe’s predictive commerce model also projects that shoppers will find
the lowest overall online prices of the season on Thanksgiving Day, with
an average discount of 26 percent, but out-of-stock incidents will also
increase by 83 percent that day. The best time to buy based on price and
product availability will vary by product category. Saturday before
Thanksgiving (Nov. 21) will offer the largest, single-day price drop for
toys, with an average discount of 18 percent. The best deals for
electronics (18 percent discount on average) will be offered on the
Monday before Thanksgiving (Nov. 23). For jewelry, discounts will peak
at 25 percent on Thanksgiving Day, while apparel items will be
discounted throughout the season.
Adobe’s Online Shopping Prediction is the most comprehensive report in
the industry. The forecast is based on an analysis of 55 million product
SKUs and aggregated and anonymous data of more than one trillion visits
to 4,500 retail websites over the last seven years. Seven dollars and
fifty cents out of every ten dollars spent online with the top 500 U.S.
retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud.* Adobe has insights into 80
percent of all transactions from the top 100 retailers in the U.S.* The
breadth of data Adobe collects has allowed the company to successfully
predict consumer online spending on Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday within
two percent in previous years, the most accurate forecast in the
industry.
“Holiday shopping is a huge investment, and consumers get more
sophisticated every year with their online and mobile shopping in order
to secure the most popular gifts at the best prices,” said Tamara
Gaffney, principal research analyst, Adobe Digital Index. “The average
U.S. Internet user will spend a total of $305 online in November and
December, with an average of $11 on Cyber Monday, which will set the
record for largest online shopping day of all time. Both months combined
will drive more than 22 percent of the total annual online sales for
U.S. retailers.”
Additional findings include:
-
Best Deals: Online prices are expected to be lowest on
Thanksgiving Day with an average discount of 26 percent. However,
out-of-stock incidents are likely to increase 83 percent on
Thanksgiving Day and peak on Cyber Monday due to increased demand.
Consumers will find the most discounts primarily through display
advertising followed by social networks, with search engines being
least likely to result in a discount of more than ten percent.
Shipping costs will be lowest on Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday
with an average of $1.30.
-
Mobile and Social Media Impact: For the first time, mobile
devices will overtake desktops on Thanksgiving Day to drive the
majority (51 percent) of online shopping visits – representing 29
percent of online sales that day, a 12 percent increase YoY. Apple iOS
will represent 22 percent of sales versus Android’s seven percent.
Consistent with last year, Adobe data also shows that two percent of
sales will be directly impacted by social networks. As of Q3 2015,
referred revenue-per-visit (RPV) from social networks was led by
Facebook ($1.24) and Pinterest ($0.74), followed by Twitter ($0.60)
and Reddit ($0.57).
-
Hot Gifts & Social Buzz: Social media buzz is typically an
early indicator for top holiday gifts. Star Wars’ BB-8 droid is
leading social media buzz for kids’ toys, followed by Barbie and
American Girl dolls. Apple leads the wearable, streaming hardware and
tablet categories with Apple Watch, Apple TV and iPad. GoPro, Fitbit,
Roku, Chromecast, Amazon Kindle and iPad Mini are the runner-ups in
each category. Sony’s PlayStation 4 is the most talked about game
console, while Minecraft and Halo 5 are even in driving buzz for the
top video game.
-
Top Online Retailers: Amazon reigns supreme followed by eBay
and Target, while Walmart beats the Gap when it comes to retailers
driving the most social media conversations since Sept. 1. Fifteen
percent of Amazon’s social buzz originates in California while 35
percent of eBay mentions come from New York. For the second
consecutive year, both California and New York are the states leading
social chatter for Target.
Helpful Links
About Adobe Digital Index
Adobe Digital Index publishes research on digital marketing and other
topics of interest to senior marketing and e-commerce executives across
industries. Research is based on the analysis of select, anonymous and
aggregated data from over 4,500 major companies worldwide that use Adobe
Marketing Cloud to obtain actionable data and analysis of activity on
their websites. The 2015 Online Shopping Forecast’s margin of error is
three percent with a 90 percent confidence level.
About Adobe
Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For more
information, visit www.adobe.com.
* Internet
Retailer’s 2015 Top 500 eGuide, an independent source that measures
online commerce technologies
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All rights reserved. Adobe and the
Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe
Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other countries. All
other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
Adobe
Stefan Offermann, 408-536-4023
sofferma@adobe.com
Craig Corica, 415-832-5389
ccorica@adobe.com